Michelle L. Barnes

photo of michelle barnes
Senior Economist and Policy Advisor
Research Department
T: 617-973-3317
Michelle.Barnes@bos.frb.org
 
Primary fields of research: Empirical finance, volatility analysis, financial markets, macroeconomics

Michelle Barnes is a senior economist and policy advisor in the research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Prior to coming to the Federal Reserve, she was a lecturer at the University of Adelaide, and she served as an economic consultant to the World Bank while receiving her Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins University.

  • Education
  • Work Experience
  • Publications
  • Public Service

Education

Ph.D., Johns Hopkins University, 1998

M.A., Johns Hopkins University, 1994

B.A., University of California, San Diego, 1991

Work Experience

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Senior Economist and Policy Advisor, 2007-
Senior Economist, 2004-2006
Economist, 2002-2004
University of Adelaide, Adelaide Australia
Lecturer B (Tenured) of economics and finance, and coordinator for the Bachelor of Finance, 1998-2002
World Bank
Research Consultant, 1996-1997 
Johns Hopkins University
Grading, Teaching, and Research Assistant, 1993-1997
JP Morgan
Summer Associate in Economic Research, Emerging Markets, summer 1993
Roadway Express
Outbound Dock Supervisor and Pick-up and Delivery Dispatcher, 1992

Publications

Refereed journal articles

"A TIPS Scorecard: Are They Accomplishing Their Objectives?" with Michelle L. Barnes, Zvi Bodie, and Robert K. Triest, Financial Analysts Journal 66(5):68-84 (September-October).

"Threshold Relationships Among Inflation, Financial Market Development, and Growth," with Nicolas Duquette. Journal of Financial Transformation 17 (August 2006).

"Alternative Measures of the Federal Reserve Banks' Cost of Equity Capital," with Jose A. Lopez. Journal of Banking and Finance 30(6): 1687-1711 (June 2006).

“Inflation and Asset Returns,” with John H. Boyd and Bruce D. Smith. European Economic Review. 43: 737-54 (1999).

“Inflation and Nominal Returns Revisited: A TAR Approach to 39 Countries.” Journal of Multinational Financial Management. 9(3-4): 233-45 (November 1999).

Other journal articles

"What Is the Federal Reserve Banks' Imputed Cost of Equity Capital?" with Jose A. Lopez. FRBSF Economic Letter 2006-6 (April 7, 2006).

Inside and Outside Bounds: Threshold Estimates of the Phillips Curve,” with Giovanni P. Olivei. New England Economic Review(2003).

Books and book chapters

“Are China’s Stock Markets Really Weak-form Efficient?” with Shiguang Ma in The Efficiency of China’s Stock Market, Shiguang Ma, ed. Hampshire, United Kingdom: Ashgate Publishing Ltd., 2004.

“Market Efficiency or Not? The Behaviour of China’s Stock Prices in Response to the Announcement of Bonus Issues,” with Shiguang Ma in The Efficiency of China’s Stock Market, Shiguang Ma, ed. Hampshire, United Kingdom: Ashgate Publishing Ltd., 2004.

“On the Nature of the Dependence in the Volatility of U.S. Stock Returns.” Proceedings from the Econometric Society of Australasia Meetings (ESAM), July 1999, Sydney, Australia.

Working papers and other unpublished papers

"The Michigan Surveys of Consumers and Consumer Spending," with Giovanni P. Olivei. FRB Boston Public Policy Brief Series, brief no. 13-8 (2013).

"Cyclical versus Secular: Decomposing the Recent Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation," with Fabia Gumbau-Brisa and Giovanni P. Olivei. FRB Boston Public Policy Brief Series, brief no. 13-2 (2013).

"Do Real-Time Okun's Law Errors Predict GDP Data Revisions?" with Fabia Gumbau-Brisa and Giovanni P. Olivei. FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 13-3.

"Estimation of Forward-Looking Relationships in Closed Form: An Application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," with Fabia Gumbau-Brisa, Denny Lie and Giovanni Olivei. FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 11-3, (2011).

"Internal Sources of Finance and The Great Recession," with N. Aaron Pancost. FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 10-15 (2010).

"The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Econmic News: Comment," with N. Aaron Pancost. FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 10-7 (2010).

"Closed-Form Estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Time-Varying Trend Inflation" with Fabia Gumbau-Brisa, Denny Lie and Giovanni P. Olivei. FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 09-15 (2009).

"TIPS Scorecard: Are TIPS Accomplishing What They Were Supposed to Accomplish? Can They be Improved?" with Zvi Bodie, Robert K. Triest and J. Christina Wang. FRB Boston Public Policy Discussion Papers Series, paper no. 09-8 (2009)

"A Principal Components Approach to Estimating Labor Market Pressure and Its Implications for Inflation," FRB Boston Public Policy Briefs Series, brief no. 07-2 (2007).

Alternative Measures of the Federal Reserve Banks’ Cost of Equity Capital,” with Jose A. Lopez. FRB Boston Public Policy Discussion Papers Series, paper no. 05-2 (2005).

A Quantile Regression Analysis of the Cross Section of Stock Market Returns,” with Anthony W. Hughes. FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 02-2 (2002).

The Behavior of China’s Stock Prices in Response to the Proposal and Approval of Bonus Issues,” with Shiguang Ma. FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 02-1 (2002).

“Beta Estimation and Forecasting with Panel Data Methods,” with Anthony W. Hughes, unpublished. (May 2000; latest version April 2001).

“Market Efficiency or Not? The Behaviour of China’s Stock Prices in Response to the Announcement of Bonus Issues,” with Shiguang Ma, unpublished. (December 2000; latest version February 2002).

“Corporate Governance and China’s Securities Markets,” with Shiguang Ma and Ryan Martin, unpublished. (November 2000).

“Beta Estimation and Forecasting with Quantile Regression Methods,” with Anthony W. Hughes, unpublished. (October 2000; latest version February 2002).

“Threshold Relationships Among Inflation, Financial Market Development and Growth,” unpublished. (April 2000; latest version May 2001).

“Are China’s Stock Markets Really Weak-Form Efficient?” with Shiguang Ma, unpublished. (March 2000; latest version February 2001).

“On the Nature of the Dependence in the Volatility of U.S. Stock Returns,” unpublished. (December 1997; revised August 1998).

“Long Memory in the Volatility of Portfolios and the Aggregation of Short-memory Processes,” with Pedro J. F. de Lima, unpublished. (May 1996; revised September 1999).

 

Public Service

Referee: Journal of Business; American Economic Review; Economic Record; European Economic Review; Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money; and International Review of Economics and Finance.

Home for Little Wanderers
Human Rights Committee Volunteer, 2006-

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