Research Department

As part of the nation's central bank, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston promotes price stability and sustainable growth in the nation and the New England region. In support of these functions, Research Department economists provide current economic analysis and policy advice to Federal Reserve decisionmakers. They also conduct innovative research on a wide range of economic, financial, and behavioral topics that aims to improve our understanding of the U.S. and global economies and to encourage better policy outcomes. Through presentations, publications, and advisory activities, they share their research and expertise with policymakers, fellow economists, and the public at large.

Latest Research

Productivity in the Slow Lane? The Role of Information and Communications Technology
by J. Christina Wang and Alison Pearson

Productivity and Export Market Participation: Evidence from Colombia
by Camila Casas, Federico J. Díez, Alejandra González, and Stefany Moreno

Rhode Island in the Great Recession: Factors Contributing to its Sharp Downturn and Slow Recovery
by Mary A. Burke

The Great Recession, Entrepreneurship, and Productivity Performance
by Federico J. Dίez

House Price Growth When Children are Teenagers: A Path to Higher Earnings?
by Daniel Cooper and María José Luengo-Prado

Current Economic Conditions
President's Report to the Board of Directors pdf
January 2015

Saving for a Rainy Day: Estimating the Appropriate Size of U.S. State Budget Stabilization Funds
by Bo Zhao

Student Loan Debt and Economic Outcomes
by Daniel Cooper and J. Christina Wang

U.S. Consumers' Holdings and Use of $100 Bills
by Claire Greene and Scott Schuh

Smoothing State Tax Revenues over the Business Cycle: Gauging Fiscal Needs and Opportunities
by Yolanda K. Kodrzycki

The Forecasting Power of Consumer Attitudes for Consumer Spending
by Michelle L. Barnes and Giovanni P. Olivei

Costs and Benefits of Building Faster Payment Systems: The U.K. Experience and Implications for the United States
by Claire Greene, Marc Rysman, Scott Schuh, and Oz Shy

The 2011 and 2012 Surveys of Consumer Payment Choice
by Scott Schuh and Joanna Stavins

The 2011 and 2012 Surveys of Consumer Payment Choice: Technical Appendix
by Marco Angrisani, Kevin Foster, and Marcin Hitczenko

Measuring Unfamiliar Economic Concepts: The Case of Prepaid Card Adoption
by Marcin Hitczenko and Mingzhu Tai

How Important Is Variability in Consumer Credit Limits?
by Scott L. Fulford

Demand for H-1B Visas in New England: An Analysis of Employer Requests for Highly-Skilled Guest Workers
by Robert Clifford

Foreign Nurse Importation to the United States and the Supply of Native Registered Nurses
by Patricia Cortés and Jessica Pan

Bitcoin as Money?
by Stephanie Lo and J. Christina Wang

Research Review coverResearch Review
Overview of recent research by economists of the Research Department
Issue Number 20

The Competitiveness of U.S. Manufacturing
by Federico J. Dίez and Gita Gopinath

Financial Frictions and the Reaction of Stock Prices to Monetary Policy Shocks
by Ali Ozdagli

Labor Market Exit and Re-Entry: Is the United States Poised for a Rebound in the Labor Force Participation Rate?
by Daniel Cooper and María José Luengo-Prado

Tight Credit Conditions Continue to Constrain The Housing Recovery
by Jordan Rappaport and Paul Willen

This Is What's in Your Wallet...and Here's How You Use It
by Tamás Briglevics and Scott Schuh

Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data
by John Bagnall, David Bounie, Kim P. Huynh, Anneke Kosse, Tobias Schmidt, Scott Schuh, and Helmut Stix

The Ins and Arounds in the U.S. Housing Market
by Rüdiger Bachmann and Daniel Cooper

Labor Market Transitions and the Availability of Unemployment Insurance
by Katharine Bradbury

Tight Credit Conditions Continue to Constrain The Housing Recovery
by Jordan Rappaport and Paul Willen

Merchant Steering of Consumer Payment Choice: Evidence from a 2012 Diary Survey
by Oz Shy and Joanna Stavins

Immigrants as a Potential Source of Growth for New England’s Highly Skilled Workforce
by Tara Watson

The Role of Economic, Fiscal, and Financial Shocks in the Evolution of Public Sector Pension Funding
by Robert K. Triest and Bo Zhao

Household Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Panel Data
by Mary A. Burke and Ali Ozdagli

An Evaluation of the Federal Reserve Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment in Real Time
by Fabià Gumbau-Brisa and Giovanni P. Olivei

U.S. Consumer Demand for Cash in the Era of Low Interest Rates and Electronic Payments
by Tamás Briglevics and Scott Schuh

Cliff Notes: The Effects of the 2013 Debt- Ceiling Crisis
by Ali Ozdagli and Joe Peek

The Cost of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty: Industry Evidence of Its Impact on the Labor Market
by J. Christina Wang

Technological Progress, the "User Cost of Money," and the Real Output of Banks
by Susanto Basu and J. Christina Wang

Optimal Monetary Policy under Model Uncertainty without Commitment
by Anna Orlik and Ignacio Presno

Not So Fast: High-Frequency Financial Data for Macroeconomic Event Studies
by Ali K. Ozdagli

Security of Retail Payments: The New Strategic Objective
by Joanna Stavins

The Michigan Surveys of Consumers and Consumer Spending
by Michelle L. Barnes and Giovanni P. Olivei

Walking a Tightrope: Are U.S. State and Local Governments on a Fiscally Sustainable Path?
by Bo Zhao and David Coyne

The 2010 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice with Technical Appendix
by Kevin Foster, Scott Schuh, and Hanbing Zhang

Uncertain Futures? Youth Attachment to the Labor Market in the United States and New England
by Alicia Sasser Modestino

Assessing the Affordability of State Debt
by Jennifer Weiner

Is Bank Debt Special for the Transmission of Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Stock Market
by Filippo Ippolito, Ali K. Ozdagli, and Ander Perez

Optimal Recall Period Length in Consumer Payment Surveys
by Marcin Hitczenko

Modeling Anchoring Effects in Sequential Likert Scale Questions
by Marcin Hitczenko

Affirmative Action and Stereotype Threat
by Anat Bracha, Alma Cohen, and Lynn Conell-Price

How Many Cards Do You Use?
by Oz Shy

Domestic and Foreign Announcements on Unconventional Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates
by Federico J. Díez and Ignacio Presno

Structural Unemployment
by Peter Diamond

Do Foreclosures Affect Boston Public School Student Academic Performance?
by Katharine Bradbury, Mary A. Burke, and Robert K. Triest

The Effect of Foreclosure on Boston Public School Student Academic Performance
by Katharine Bradbury, Mary A. Burke, and Robert K. Triest

Asymmetric Responses to Tax-Induced Changes in Personal Income: The 2013 Payroll Tax Hike versus Anticipated 2012 Tax Refunds
by Anat Bracha and Daniel Cooper

How Low Can You Go? Charity Reporting When Donations Signal Income and Generosity
by Anat Bracha and Lise Vesterlund

Enforcement and Immigrant Location Choice
by Tara Watson

Is Monetary Policy Overburdened?
by Athanasios Orphanides

The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on U.S. Employment: Industry Evidence
by J. Christina Wang

Occupation-Level Income Shocks and Asset Returns: Their Covariance and Implications for Portfolio Choice
by Steven J. Davis and Paul S. Willen

The Credit CARD Act of 2009: What Did Banks Do?
by Vikram Jambulapati and Joanna Stavins

The Effect of Unemployment Duration on Future Earnings and Other Outcomes
by Daniel Cooper

Changes in U.S. Household Balance Sheet Behavior after the Housing Bust and Great Recession: Evidence from Panel Data
by Daniel Cooper

The Role of Banks in the Transmission of Monetary Policy
by Joe Peek and Eric S. Rosengren

The Value to Banks of Small Business Lending
by Dmytro Holod and Joe Peek

Payment Choice with Consumer Panel Data
by Michael Cohen and Marc Rysman

Cyclical versus Secular: Decomposing the Recent Decline in U.S. Labor Force Participation
by Michelle L. Barnes, Fabià Gumbau-Brisa, and Giovanni P. Olivei

Merchant Steering of Consumer Payment Choice: Lessons Learned From Consumer Surveys
by Oz Shy and Joanna Stavins

Wealth Shocks and Macroeconomic Dynamics
by Daniel Cooper and Karen Dynan

Economic Distress and Resurgence in U.S. Central Cities: Concepts, Causes, and Policy Levers
by Yolanda K. Kodrzycki and Ana Patricia Muñoz

A Decomposition of Shifts of the Beveridge Curve
by Rand Ghayad

Cyclical Unemployment, Structural Unemployment
by Peter Diamond

The Role of Proximity in Foreclosure Externalities: Evidence from Condominiums
by Lynn M. Fisher, Lauren Lambie-Hanson, and Paul S. Willen

Retaining Recent College Graduates in New England: An Update on Current Trends
by Alicia Sasser Modestino

Window Shopping
by Oz Shy

When Does Delinquency Result in Neglect? Mortgage Distress and Property Maintenance
by Lauren Lambie-Hanson

Do Real-Time Okun’s Law Errors Predict GDP Data Revisions?
by Michelle L. Barnes, Fabià Gumbau-Brisa, and Giovanni P. Olivei

The Power of Sunspots: An Experimental Analysis
by Dietmar Fehr, Frank Heinemann, and Aniol Llorente-Saguer

The Quest for Cost-Efficient Local Government in New England: What Role for Regional Consolidation?
by Yolanda K. Kodrzycki

The Impact of Managed Care on the Gender Earnings Gap among Physicians
by Alicia Sasser Modestino

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