Research Department

As part of the nation's central bank, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston promotes price stability and sustainable growth in the nation and the New England region. In support of these functions, Research Department economists provide current economic analysis and policy advice to Federal Reserve decisionmakers. They also conduct innovative research on a wide range of economic, financial, and behavioral topics that aims to improve our understanding of the U.S. and global economies and to encourage better policy outcomes. Through presentations, publications, and advisory activities, they share their research and expertise with policymakers, fellow economists, and the public at large.

Latest Research

Did the Target Data Breach Change Consumer Assessments of Payment Card Security?
Research Data Report No. 16-1
Claire Greene and Joanna Stavins

Why Is State and Local Government Capital Spending Lower in the New England States Than in Other U.S. States?
by Ronald Fisher and Riley Sullivan
NEPPC Policy Report 16-1

The Effect of Demographics on Payment Behavior: Panel Data with Sample Selection
Working Paper No. 16-5
by Joanna Stavins

Changing Patterns in Informal Work Participation in the United States 2013–2015
Current Policy Perspectives No. 15-10
by Anat Bracha, Mary Burke, and Arman Khachiyan

Consumer Revolving Credit and Debt over the Life Cycle and Business Cycle
Working Paper No. 15-17
by Scott L. Fulford and Scott Schuh

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics
Working Paper No. 15-16
by Vania Stavrakeva and Jenny Tang

The Final Countdown: The Effect of Monetary Policy during "Wait-for-It" and Reversal Periods
by Ali Ozdagli

Consumers' Use of Overdraft Protection
by Claire Greene and Mi Luo

Can Subsidized Housing Help Address Homelessness in New England?
by Robert Clifford and Osborne Jackson

The Rise and Fall of Consumption in the '00s
by Yuliya Demyanyk, Dmytro Hryshko, Maria José Luengo-Prado, & Bent E. Sørensen

Do Increases in Subsidized Housing Reduce the Incidence of Homelessness? Evidence from the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit
by Osborne Jackson and Laura Kawano

Price Dispersion and Inflation: New Facts and Theoretical Implications
by Viacheslav Sheremirov

Global Standards for Liquidity Regulation
by Eva Liebmann and Joe Peek

State Highway Funding in New England: The Road to Greater Fiscal Sustainability
by Jennifer Weiner

Output Response to Government Spending: Evidence from New International Military Spending Data
by Viacheslav Sheremirov and Sandra Spirovska

Uncertainty and the Signaling Channel of Monetary Policy
by Jenny Tang

How Are U.S. Consumers Using General Purpose Reloadable Prepaid Cards? Are They Being Used as Substitutes for Checking Accounts?
by Claire Greene and Oz Shy

Estimating Population Means in the 2012 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice
by Marcin Hitczenko

The Distributional Effects of Contractual Norms: The Case of Cropshare Agreements
by Mary A. Burke

Did Abnormal Weather Affect U.S. Employment Growth in Early 2015?
by Christopher L. Foote

Within-School Spillover Effects of Foreclosures and Student Mobility on Student Academic Performance
by Katharine Bradbury, Mary A. Burke, and Robert K. Triest

Expectations as a Source of Macroeconomic Persistence: An Exploration of Firms' and Households' Expectation Formation
by Jeff Fuhrer

Measuring Municipal Fiscal Disparities in Connecticut
by Bo Zhao and Jennifer Weiner

The Failure of Supervisory Stress Testing: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and OFHEO
by W. Scott Frame, Kristopher Gerardi, and Paul S. Willen

How Do Speed and Security Influence Consumers' Payment Behavior?
by Scott Schuh and Joanna Stavins

Designing a Simple Loss Function for the Fed: Does the Dual Mandate Make Sense?
by Davide Debortoli, Jinill Kim, Jesper Lindé, and Ricardo Nunes

U.S. Consumer Holdings and Use of $1 Bills
by Scott Fulford, Claire Greene, and William Murdock III

Nudging Credit Scores in the Field: The Effect of Text Reminders on Creditworthiness in the United States
by Anat Bracha and Stephan Meier

Price Setting in Online Markets: Does IT Click?
by Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Viacheslav Sheremirov, and Oleksandr Talavera

Informal Work Activity in the United States: Evidence from Survey Responses
by Anat Bracha and Mary A. Burke

Let's Talk About It: What Policy Tools Should the Fed "Normally" Use?
by Michelle L. Barnes

Upskilling: Do Employers Demand Greater Skill When Skilled Workers Are Plentiful?
by Alicia Sasser Modestino, Daniel Shoag, and Joshua Ballance

SNAP: Should We Be Worried about a Sudden, Sharp Rise from Low, Long-Term Rates?
by Ali K. Ozdagli

Labor Market Polarization Over the Business Cycle
by Christopher L. Foote and Richard W. Ryan

Vanishing Procyclicality of Productivity? Industry Evidence
by J. Christina Wang

Productivity in the Slow Lane? The Role of Information and Communications Technology
by J. Christina Wang and Alison Pearson

Productivity and Export Market Participation: Evidence from Colombia
by Camila Casas, Federico J. Díez, Alejandra González, and Stefany Moreno

Rhode Island in the Great Recession: Factors Contributing to its Sharp Downturn and Slow Recovery
by Mary A. Burke

The Great Recession, Entrepreneurship, and Productivity Performance
by Federico J. Dίez

House Price Growth When Children are Teenagers: A Path to Higher Earnings?
by Daniel Cooper and María José Luengo-Prado

Saving for a Rainy Day: Estimating the Appropriate Size of U.S. State Budget Stabilization Funds
by Bo Zhao

Student Loan Debt and Economic Outcomes
by Daniel Cooper and J. Christina Wang

U.S. Consumers' Holdings and Use of $100 Bills
by Claire Greene and Scott Schuh

Smoothing State Tax Revenues over the Business Cycle: Gauging Fiscal Needs and Opportunities
by Yolanda K. Kodrzycki

The Forecasting Power of Consumer Attitudes for Consumer Spending
by Michelle L. Barnes and Giovanni P. Olivei

Costs and Benefits of Building Faster Payment Systems: The U.K. Experience and Implications for the United States
by Claire Greene, Marc Rysman, Scott Schuh, and Oz Shy

The 2011 and 2012 Surveys of Consumer Payment Choice
by Scott Schuh and Joanna Stavins

The 2011 and 2012 Surveys of Consumer Payment Choice: Technical Appendix
by Marco Angrisani, Kevin Foster, and Marcin Hitczenko

Measuring Unfamiliar Economic Concepts: The Case of Prepaid Card Adoption
by Marcin Hitczenko and Mingzhu Tai

How Important Is Variability in Consumer Credit Limits?
by Scott L. Fulford

Demand for H-1B Visas in New England: An Analysis of Employer Requests for Highly-Skilled Guest Workers
by Robert Clifford

Foreign Nurse Importation to the United States and the Supply of Native Registered Nurses
by Patricia Cortés and Jessica Pan

Bitcoin as Money?
by Stephanie Lo and J. Christina Wang

The Competitiveness of U.S. Manufacturing
by Federico J. Dίez and Gita Gopinath

Financial Frictions and the Reaction of Stock Prices to Monetary Policy Shocks
by Ali Ozdagli

Labor Market Exit and Re-Entry: Is the United States Poised for a Rebound in the Labor Force Participation Rate?
by Daniel Cooper and María José Luengo-Prado

Tight Credit Conditions Continue to Constrain The Housing Recovery
by Jordan Rappaport and Paul Willen

This Is What's in Your Wallet...and Here's How You Use It
by Tamás Briglevics and Scott Schuh

Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data
by John Bagnall, David Bounie, Kim P. Huynh, Anneke Kosse, Tobias Schmidt, Scott Schuh, and Helmut Stix

The Ins and Arounds in the U.S. Housing Market
by Rüdiger Bachmann and Daniel Cooper

Labor Market Transitions and the Availability of Unemployment Insurance
by Katharine Bradbury

Tight Credit Conditions Continue to Constrain The Housing Recovery
by Jordan Rappaport and Paul Willen

Merchant Steering of Consumer Payment Choice: Evidence from a 2012 Diary Survey
by Oz Shy and Joanna Stavins

Immigrants as a Potential Source of Growth for New England’s Highly Skilled Workforce
by Tara Watson

The Role of Economic, Fiscal, and Financial Shocks in the Evolution of Public Sector Pension Funding
by Robert K. Triest and Bo Zhao

Household Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Panel Data
by Mary A. Burke and Ali Ozdagli

An Evaluation of the Federal Reserve Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment in Real Time
by Fabià Gumbau-Brisa and Giovanni P. Olivei

U.S. Consumer Demand for Cash in the Era of Low Interest Rates and Electronic Payments
by Tamás Briglevics and Scott Schuh

Cliff Notes: The Effects of the 2013 Debt- Ceiling Crisis
by Ali Ozdagli and Joe Peek

The Cost of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty: Industry Evidence of Its Impact on the Labor Market
by J. Christina Wang

Technological Progress, the "User Cost of Money," and the Real Output of Banks
by Susanto Basu and J. Christina Wang

Optimal Monetary Policy under Model Uncertainty without Commitment
by Anna Orlik and Ignacio Presno

Not So Fast: High-Frequency Financial Data for Macroeconomic Event Studies
by Ali K. Ozdagli

Security of Retail Payments: The New Strategic Objective
by Joanna Stavins

The Michigan Surveys of Consumers and Consumer Spending
by Michelle L. Barnes and Giovanni P. Olivei

Walking a Tightrope: Are U.S. State and Local Governments on a Fiscally Sustainable Path?
by Bo Zhao and David Coyne

The 2010 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice with Technical Appendix
by Kevin Foster, Scott Schuh, and Hanbing Zhang

Uncertain Futures? Youth Attachment to the Labor Market in the United States and New England
by Alicia Sasser Modestino

Assessing the Affordability of State Debt
by Jennifer Weiner

Is Bank Debt Special for the Transmission of Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Stock Market
by Filippo Ippolito, Ali K. Ozdagli, and Ander Perez

Optimal Recall Period Length in Consumer Payment Surveys
by Marcin Hitczenko

Modeling Anchoring Effects in Sequential Likert Scale Questions
by Marcin Hitczenko

Affirmative Action and Stereotype Threat
by Anat Bracha, Alma Cohen, and Lynn Conell-Price

How Many Cards Do You Use?
by Oz Shy

Domestic and Foreign Announcements on Unconventional Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates
by Federico J. Díez and Ignacio Presno

Structural Unemployment
by Peter Diamond

Do Foreclosures Affect Boston Public School Student Academic Performance?
by Katharine Bradbury, Mary A. Burke, and Robert K. Triest

The Effect of Foreclosure on Boston Public School Student Academic Performance
by Katharine Bradbury, Mary A. Burke, and Robert K. Triest

Asymmetric Responses to Tax-Induced Changes in Personal Income: The 2013 Payroll Tax Hike versus Anticipated 2012 Tax Refunds
by Anat Bracha and Daniel Cooper

How Low Can You Go? Charity Reporting When Donations Signal Income and Generosity
by Anat Bracha and Lise Vesterlund

Enforcement and Immigrant Location Choice
by Tara Watson

Is Monetary Policy Overburdened?
by Athanasios Orphanides

The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on U.S. Employment: Industry Evidence
by J. Christina Wang

Occupation-Level Income Shocks and Asset Returns: Their Covariance and Implications for Portfolio Choice
by Steven J. Davis and Paul S. Willen

The Credit CARD Act of 2009: What Did Banks Do?
by Vikram Jambulapati and Joanna Stavins

The Effect of Unemployment Duration on Future Earnings and Other Outcomes
by Daniel Cooper

Changes in U.S. Household Balance Sheet Behavior after the Housing Bust and Great Recession: Evidence from Panel Data
by Daniel Cooper

The Role of Banks in the Transmission of Monetary Policy
by Joe Peek and Eric S. Rosengren

The Value to Banks of Small Business Lending
by Dmytro Holod and Joe Peek

Payment Choice with Consumer Panel Data
by Michael Cohen and Marc Rysman

Cyclical versus Secular: Decomposing the Recent Decline in U.S. Labor Force Participation
by Michelle L. Barnes, Fabià Gumbau-Brisa, and Giovanni P. Olivei

Merchant Steering of Consumer Payment Choice: Lessons Learned From Consumer Surveys
by Oz Shy and Joanna Stavins

Wealth Shocks and Macroeconomic Dynamics
by Daniel Cooper and Karen Dynan

Economic Distress and Resurgence in U.S. Central Cities: Concepts, Causes, and Policy Levers
by Yolanda K. Kodrzycki and Ana Patricia Muñoz

A Decomposition of Shifts of the Beveridge Curve
by Rand Ghayad

Cyclical Unemployment, Structural Unemployment
by Peter Diamond

The Role of Proximity in Foreclosure Externalities: Evidence from Condominiums
by Lynn M. Fisher, Lauren Lambie-Hanson, and Paul S. Willen

Retaining Recent College Graduates in New England: An Update on Current Trends
by Alicia Sasser Modestino

Window Shopping
by Oz Shy

When Does Delinquency Result in Neglect? Mortgage Distress and Property Maintenance
by Lauren Lambie-Hanson

Do Real-Time Okun’s Law Errors Predict GDP Data Revisions?
by Michelle L. Barnes, Fabià Gumbau-Brisa, and Giovanni P. Olivei

The Power of Sunspots: An Experimental Analysis
by Dietmar Fehr, Frank Heinemann, and Aniol Llorente-Saguer

The Quest for Cost-Efficient Local Government in New England: What Role for Regional Consolidation?
by Yolanda K. Kodrzycki

The Impact of Managed Care on the Gender Earnings Gap among Physicians
by Alicia Sasser Modestino

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