" Figure 11a " Explaining High Unemployment Duration in the 1990s " " Ratio of Published Median Duration of Unemployment to Civilian " Unemployment Rate " " Ratio " " Note: Completed unemployment spells are quarterly averages of " monthly data, seasonally adjusted, and Polivka-Miller adjusted. " Source: Unemployment rate and median duration: U.S. Bureau of Labor " Statistics; vacancies: Abraham (1987); completed unemployment spells: " authors' calculations. " " Ratio 1967:3 1.21053 1967:4 1.23077 1968:1 1.22321 1968:2 1.25234 1968:3 1.25472 1968:4 1.33333 1969:1 1.30392 1969:2 1.22330 1969:3 1.26168 1969:4 1.29907 1970:1 1.09600 1970:2 0.95804 1970:3 1.01290 1970:4 0.95429 1971:1 1.06180 1971:2 1.06780 1971:3 1.01657 1971:4 1.07303 1972:1 1.12139 1972:2 1.09357 1972:3 1.05988 1972:4 1.08696 1973:1 1.10811 1973:2 1.00676 1973:3 1.07639 1973:4 1.06993 1974:1 0.96753 1974:2 0.95513 1974:3 0.94675 1974:4 0.82828 1975:1 0.83065 1975:2 1.01128 1975:3 1.06299 1975:4 1.08835 1976:1 1.11638 1976:2 1.07048 1976:3 1.00862 1976:4 1.03433 1977:1 0.97333 1977:2 1.00000 1977:3 1.00483 1977:4 1.03500 1978:1 1.02105 1978:2 0.98889 1978:3 0.95028 1978:4 0.96045 1979:1 1.00568 1979:2 0.97076 1979:3 0.92045 1979:4 0.92179 1980:1 0.90476 1980:2 0.81364 1980:3 0.96522 1980:4 1.02252 1981:1 0.96861 1981:2 0.94144 1981:3 0.95045 1981:4 0.83401 1982:1 0.84151 1982:2 0.92226 1982:3 0.89899 1982:4 0.93437 1983:1 1.00643 1983:2 1.13487 1983:3 1.02135 1983:4 1.07031 1984:1 1.08898 1984:2 1.11211 1984:3 1.00448 1984:4 0.99087 1985:1 0.96774 1985:2 0.93151 1985:3 0.96759 1985:4 0.99052 1986:1 0.96682 1986:2 0.95349 1986:3 1.02392 1986:4 1.03415 1987:1 1.01515 1987:2 1.07447 1987:3 1.05000 1987:4 1.05714 1988:1 1.10526 1988:2 1.07317 1988:3 1.07927 1988:4 1.07500 1989:1 1.05128 1989:2 1.02548 1989:3 0.98726 1989:4 0.90683 1990:1 0.97484 1990:2 0.95000 1990:3 0.95906 1990:4 0.94565 1991:1 0.95455 1991:2 0.97073 1991:3 1.02427 1991:4 1.05634 1992:1 1.11312 1992:2 1.14035 1992:3 1.13537 1992:4 1.23529 1993:1 1.19626 1993:2 1.16981 1993:3 1.21078 1993:4 1.23618 1994:1 1.37563 1994:2 1.48387 1994:3 1.50556 1994:4 1.63905 1995:1 1.48780 1995:2 1.48235 1995:3 1.43860 1995:4 1.46108 1996:1 1.48193 1996:2 1.55488 1996:3 1.58861 1996:4 1.48125 1997:1 1.52866 1997:2 1.62416 1997:3 1.63946 1997:4 1.62857 1998:1 1.53237 1998:2 1.46970 1998:3 1.48889 1998:4 1.46212 1999:1 1.61240 1999:2 1.48438 " " Figure 11b " Explaining High Unemployment Duration in the 1990s " " Ratio of Median Duration of Completed Unemployment Spells " to Civilian Unemployment Rate " " Ratio " " U-->E U-->N 1976:1 0.69954 0.96529 1976:2 0.84404 0.94527 1976:3 0.78204 0.92884 1976:4 0.77311 0.87970 1977:1 0.74639 0.97058 1977:2 0.84858 1.00269 1977:3 0.77987 1.04101 1977:4 0.80067 1.07485 1978:1 0.77523 0.94183 1978:2 0.84220 0.91431 1978:3 0.72615 1.08006 1978:4 0.79172 0.87554 1979:1 0.84055 1.12716 1979:2 0.76957 1.13787 1979:3 0.68996 0.94028 1979:4 0.72701 0.86576 1980:1 0.67692 0.94381 1980:2 0.55271 0.79352 1980:3 0.70188 0.89343 1980:4 0.76637 0.96834 1981:1 0.75308 0.97928 1981:2 0.77296 0.87647 1981:3 0.68213 0.97068 1981:4 0.60783 0.78935 1982:1 0.52052 0.82407 1982:2 0.64168 0.75822 1982:3 0.57721 0.82657 1982:4 0.65667 0.73428 1983:1 0.60430 0.83080 1983:2 0.76183 0.80452 1983:3 0.71684 0.90922 1983:4 0.74271 0.91785 1984:1 0.88109 0.92534 1984:2 0.90402 0.96222 1984:3 0.72391 0.96632 1984:4 0.73121 0.98160 1985:1 0.68174 1.00636 1985:2 0.78355 0.97980 1985:3 0.76977 0.92474 1985:4 0.68138 1.05975 1986:1 0.84330 0.98758 1986:2 0.65859 0.99802 1986:3 0.77241 0.93536 1986:4 0.82992 1.04864 1987:1 0.79766 1.05242 1987:2 0.69998 1.14136 1987:3 0.89685 1.14161 1987:4 0.75921 1.12970 1988:1 0.80665 1.21859 1988:2 0.74144 1.18643 1988:3 0.80142 1.25299 1988:4 0.81334 1.03107 1989:1 0.88421 1.01525 1989:2 0.71081 1.04825 1989:3 0.83715 1.18147 1989:4 0.80829 1.08677 1990:1 0.86753 0.99610 1990:2 0.88498 1.09110 1990:3 0.82709 1.02626 1990:4 0.70725 1.00527 1991:1 0.74716 0.95141 1991:2 0.69071 1.04671 1991:3 0.78365 1.14316 1991:4 0.84570 1.05620 1992:1 0.75990 0.98814 1992:2 0.79648 0.94112 1992:3 0.87962 1.11568 1992:4 0.86034 1.10846 1993:1 1.01840 1.20738 1993:2 0.90376 1.38951 1993:3 0.88938 1.15436 1993:4 1.00570 1.23101 1994:1 0.85247 1.41309 1994:2 0.92256 1.58374 1994:3 0.84129 1.30828 1994:4 0.88837 1.56787 1995:1 0.90206 1.39256 1995:2 0.81048 1.23965 1995:3 0.78338 1.33249 1995:4 0.77925 1.46689 1996:1 0.77071 1.31554 1996:2 0.92437 1.36936 1996:3 0.83185 1.36386 1996:4 0.81334 1.40607 1997:1 0.94227 1.39095 1997:2 0.88320 1.50722 1997:3 0.96213 1.46592 1997:4 0.92953 1.67836 1998:1 0.99235 1.49913 1998:2 0.69391 1.54981 1998:3 0.97358 1.37400 1998:4 0.98586 1.62856 1999:1 0.99176 1.61535 " " Figure 11c " Explaining High Unemployment Duration in the 1990s " " Ratio of Job Vacancies to Civilian Unemployment Rate " " Ratio " " Ratio 1960:1 0.36371 1960:2 0.33159 1960:3 0.29262 1960:4 0.23337 1961:1 0.20441 1961:2 0.20650 1961:3 0.22991 1961:4 0.27608 1962:1 0.31122 1962:2 0.31358 1962:3 0.30265 1962:4 0.29293 1963:1 0.28462 1963:2 0.27902 1963:3 0.29432 1963:4 0.29671 1964:1 0.30433 1964:2 0.33611 1964:3 0.36521 1964:4 0.37832 1965:1 0.39432 1965:2 0.43970 1965:3 0.48765 1965:4 0.57830 1966:1 0.65048 1966:2 0.65614 1966:3 0.66041 1966:4 0.65405 1967:1 0.61449 1967:2 0.60004 1967:3 0.59767 1967:4 0.59297 1968:1 0.62158 1968:2 0.66730 1968:3 0.69693 1968:4 0.76247 1969:1 0.77741 1969:2 0.76281 1969:3 0.71299 1969:4 0.70440 1970:1 0.54346 1970:2 0.42260 1970:3 0.35935 1970:4 0.29780 1971:1 0.28142 1971:2 0.29061 1971:3 0.28852 1971:4 0.29882 1972:1 0.32674 1972:2 0.34320 1972:3 0.37275 1972:4 0.42363 1973:1 0.49233 1973:2 0.48596 1973:3 0.50050 1973:4 0.49131 1974:1 0.42115 1974:2 0.41656 1974:3 0.35450 1974:4 0.25230 1975:1 0.16736 1975:2 0.15670 1975:3 0.17267 1975:4 0.18215 1976:1 0.20169 1976:2 0.21141 1976:3 0.20674 1976:4 0.21234 1977:1 0.22752 1977:2 0.25304 1977:3 0.27340 1977:4 0.30535 1978:1 0.32479 1978:2 0.36430 1978:3 0.36270 1978:4 0.38562 1979:1 0.37371 1979:2 0.38961 1979:3 0.37674 1979:4 0.36520 1980:1 0.31824 1980:2 0.22817 1980:3 0.21978 1980:4 0.23553 1981:1 0.22748 1981:2 0.22737 1981:3 0.22066 1981:4 0.17693 1982:1 0.15276 1982:2 0.13039 1982:3 0.11022 1982:4 0.10013 1983:1 0.10752 1983:2 0.12089 1983:3 0.14500 1983:4 0.17707 1984:1 0.20413 1984:2 0.22987 1984:3 0.23186 1984:4 0.23837 1985:1 0.23966 1985:2 0.23937 1985:3 0.24225 1985:4 0.24544 1986:1 0.27375 1986:2 0.26751 1986:3 0.27689 1986:4 0.28654 1987:1 0.29792 1987:2 0.32344 1987:3 0.34805 1987:4 0.35915 1988:1 0.36127 1988:2 0.37494 1988:3 0.37101 1988:4 0.37990 1989:1 0.38171 1989:2 0.36636 1989:3 0.35170 1989:4 0.34271 1990:1 0.33504 1990:2 0.31135 1990:3 0.27647 1990:4 0.22579 1991:1 0.18853 1991:2 0.17692 1991:3 0.17128 1991:4 0.16214 1992:1 0.16064 1992:2 0.15779 1992:3 0.15586 1992:4 0.16693 1993:1 0.17689 1993:2 0.17925 1993:3 0.19356 1993:4 0.20920 1994:1 0.22193 1994:2 0.24089 1994:3 0.25267 1994:4 0.28311 1995:1 0.28391 1995:2 0.26021 1995:3 0.26182 1995:4 0.27008 1996:1 0.26622 1996:2 0.26266 1996:3 0.27204 1996:4 0.27435 1997:1 0.28561 1997:2 0.29300 1997:3 0.30107 1997:4 0.32229 1998:1 0.32956 1998:2 0.34146 1998:3 0.33203 1998:4 0.32899 1999:1 0.34459