" Figure 13 " Recent Unemployment Forecasts " " Using Disaggregated Duration and Flow Data " " Percent " " Note: Unemployment rate is a quarterly average of monthly data. " Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population " Survey micro data, and authors' calcuations. " " Actual Unemp. Baseline Duration Adj. 1997:1 5.23333 5.15450 5.10736 1997:2 4.96667 4.95799 4.96284 1997:3 4.90000 4.75255 4.93474 1997:4 4.66667 4.62389 4.84081 1998:1 4.63333 4.35961 4.62914 1998:2 4.40000 4.28541 4.60746 1998:3 4.50000 4.14385 4.60856 1998:4 4.40000 3.87594 4.50593 1999:1 4.30000 3.62749 4.41400