" Figure 4 " Escape Rates from Unemployment, by Reason Unemployed " " Percent " " Note: Escape rate is percent of unemployed in category who become " employed. Data expressed as 11-month centered moving average, seasonally " adjusted, Abowd-Zellner mean adjusted, and Polivka-Miller " adjusted. Escape rates are adjusted for the 1994 redesign, using coefficients " from a regression that includes one lag of the escape rate and a redesign " dummy. " Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population " Survey micro data, and authors' calcuations. " " UT UL UQ URE UNE 1977:1 20.10889 36.60446 27.86513 24.52687 21.15772 1977:2 20.47337 36.19926 28.52061 24.95976 21.27154 1977:3 20.34271 36.80185 29.26928 25.28908 21.35488 1977:4 20.55655 37.04603 30.10082 25.52887 21.07379 1977:5 20.75081 37.49292 31.11848 25.68526 21.47251 1977:6 20.73684 37.27228 30.91349 25.41204 21.38611 1977:7 21.58864 37.50063 30.73273 25.62784 22.03502 1977:8 22.18156 38.09826 30.60098 25.83711 22.53741 1977:9 22.49689 37.53289 30.48592 25.90384 22.73448 1977:10 22.44171 38.12541 29.90956 25.98129 22.41468 1977:11 22.97378 39.81575 30.04616 26.09227 22.48703 1977:12 23.07503 39.15199 30.54828 26.82739 22.88579 1978:1 23.39231 39.37366 30.87485 27.23125 22.77541 1978:2 23.21428 39.62172 31.19165 26.98032 22.91935 1978:3 23.45978 39.00173 31.46866 27.11284 23.09050 1978:4 23.91855 39.77828 31.52040 27.69732 23.06756 1978:5 24.13071 40.10184 32.44203 28.03574 23.62354 1978:6 23.95187 40.17142 32.85673 27.95021 23.51505 1978:7 23.64462 40.12922 33.29490 27.52958 23.46094 1978:8 23.64435 40.10205 34.16840 27.51164 23.06644 1978:9 23.94809 40.59265 34.77749 27.45191 23.43367 1978:10 23.94727 39.49003 34.98680 27.42740 23.64864 1978:11 23.90462 39.24230 34.82062 26.94980 23.41224 1978:12 23.97271 39.67228 34.64433 26.64110 23.32050 1979:1 24.86247 40.21086 34.69386 26.69537 23.30682 1979:2 24.57823 41.11340 34.81793 26.88349 23.26485 1979:3 24.04596 40.57054 34.73639 26.51193 23.91556 1979:4 24.02734 40.84661 34.36352 26.99370 23.57566 1979:5 23.72086 40.57891 34.76310 27.00331 23.38739 1979:6 23.92248 40.14189 35.01168 27.70091 23.75068 1979:7 23.74067 39.44152 34.73483 27.80906 24.28128 1979:8 23.49029 38.56530 33.90201 27.40819 24.10860 1979:9 23.70452 38.56780 34.16927 27.16358 23.79860 1979:10 23.58155 38.89597 34.13341 27.15545 23.89567 1979:11 23.16402 37.19339 33.68794 27.05980 23.78545 1979:12 22.37429 35.85936 33.35070 27.39839 23.62618 1980:1 22.15148 35.02030 32.63423 26.89846 23.57868 1980:2 22.20501 34.06472 32.12215 27.13852 22.38086 1980:3 21.82661 33.65042 31.40032 26.73442 22.57494 1980:4 21.74291 33.42002 30.59612 26.73208 22.92311 1980:5 21.49387 33.44704 30.50423 26.49724 22.81123 1980:6 21.26686 33.73525 30.26930 26.05609 22.27467 1980:7 21.30817 32.92731 31.17394 26.18685 22.16081 1980:8 20.48222 32.15782 30.57052 26.27265 21.78508 1980:9 20.07365 31.94116 30.49857 25.99339 20.98760 1980:10 19.78922 32.93701 30.79463 25.82599 20.91046 1980:11 19.93702 33.41174 30.76137 25.44493 20.43072 1980:12 20.02060 33.28215 30.37838 25.33323 20.11383 1981:1 20.00620 33.63661 30.19054 24.90209 20.32089 1981:2 20.42475 33.23026 30.42903 24.68212 20.21810 1981:3 20.23394 32.70638 30.53075 24.52650 19.46950 1981:4 20.12878 32.59676 30.14789 23.70183 18.85435 1981:5 20.46789 32.77350 29.59849 23.57911 18.93305 1981:6 20.33786 33.10502 28.91997 23.24296 18.71076 1981:7 20.15369 32.83267 28.82716 23.12531 18.89736 1981:8 19.97950 32.84006 28.45437 23.10004 19.25014 1981:9 19.75465 32.02558 27.74418 22.56481 18.82773 1981:10 19.38956 31.41736 27.71444 22.13444 18.53200 1981:11 19.00787 31.33900 27.66399 21.95259 18.51569 1981:12 18.64443 31.34751 27.75846 21.44915 18.30878 1982:1 18.18624 31.08409 27.18588 20.46487 17.62311 1982:2 18.19610 31.12187 26.92749 19.99372 17.45598 1982:3 18.09932 30.34294 26.14890 20.00068 16.88825 1982:4 17.71915 29.39975 26.06013 19.78081 16.38234 1982:5 17.29398 29.06176 25.87229 19.50215 16.01761 1982:6 17.13414 28.56987 25.00419 18.98925 15.61267 1982:7 17.02644 28.22589 24.98660 18.97063 15.38402 1982:8 16.84231 27.76456 25.34250 18.77228 15.50077 1982:9 16.43471 27.25968 24.39575 18.46110 15.63751 1982:10 16.20498 26.95461 24.43363 18.19835 15.56391 1982:11 16.05803 26.37510 24.10671 18.36408 15.44313 1982:12 15.85108 26.25719 23.98349 18.87117 15.44408 1983:1 15.75754 26.28050 24.25914 19.09334 16.03851 1983:2 15.63440 26.87435 24.95150 19.02408 16.38661 1983:3 15.46552 26.96353 25.60267 18.99630 16.75444 1983:4 15.70451 27.29359 25.72305 19.32413 17.14216 1983:5 15.97488 28.41571 25.45706 19.28003 17.13344 1983:6 16.29590 29.09169 25.34689 19.20297 17.77946 1983:7 16.59646 29.95856 25.88783 19.42133 18.35426 1983:8 16.98808 30.90135 27.05554 19.67396 18.53597 1983:9 17.75004 31.21692 28.18553 20.13186 18.69004 1983:10 18.07368 31.94349 28.22441 20.18969 18.80425 1983:11 18.39436 31.99103 29.23322 20.38221 19.20412 1983:12 18.51978 32.29954 29.11602 20.31475 18.94823 1984:1 19.02748 32.96883 29.46380 20.86981 19.16722 1984:2 19.20855 33.61304 29.43763 21.09759 19.45574 1984:3 19.77233 33.96264 29.65817 21.13167 19.64606 1984:4 19.75537 34.11932 30.38065 21.38748 20.15418 1984:5 19.87712 33.99569 30.85550 21.67253 19.70517 1984:6 20.25176 34.56023 30.36424 21.92421 19.40229 1984:7 20.20377 34.72583 30.09299 21.99855 19.23804 1984:8 19.90467 35.29458 29.23945 21.84197 19.63334 1984:9 20.29351 35.82891 29.44251 22.41064 19.93406 1984:10 20.53189 36.75762 29.26462 22.47474 19.78794 1984:11 20.71233 36.72878 29.49997 22.65970 19.89312 1984:12 20.80519 36.79133 29.37236 22.44350 20.46312 1985:1 20.98030 36.66275 29.05809 22.67930 20.32845 1985:2 20.66220 36.45203 29.41204 22.87273 20.14972 1985:3 20.98339 36.24519 30.19498 23.24412 20.06216 1985:4 21.12969 36.30952 30.81862 23.28032 20.29389 1985:5 21.06775 35.77375 31.32544 23.23424 20.23412 1985:6 21.38591 35.52279 31.72179 23.38305 20.37605 1985:7 21.42649 35.28524 31.81150 23.36397 19.81488 1985:8 21.45746 35.05530 32.06133 23.36651 19.85560 1985:9 21.25785 34.29972 32.42786 23.06952 20.02634 1985:10 21.31152 34.37658 32.39788 23.26214 20.33623 1985:11 20.92214 34.30777 32.20956 23.14295 19.52789 1985:12 20.87172 34.76199 32.55479 23.09280 19.64721 1986:1 20.71334 34.69768 32.45704 23.18646 19.74739 1986:2 20.54467 35.22498 32.04148 23.12663 19.38210 1986:3 20.58103 35.36879 31.32034 23.24785 19.23561 1986:4 20.40641 35.47278 31.45796 23.44447 19.04649 1986:5 20.35092 35.83340 31.09429 23.61301 19.27555 1986:6 20.42258 36.39458 30.91364 23.92482 19.41723 1986:7 20.44049 36.42416 30.99069 23.61434 19.46480 1986:8 20.63915 37.24253 30.73000 24.09245 19.47988 1986:9 20.46793 37.50325 30.17710 24.01746 19.04165 1986:10 20.64444 37.24780 30.47501 24.59356 19.22504 1986:11 21.11372 37.00397 30.40917 25.00372 19.08820 1986:12 21.38480 37.66129 30.77382 25.00272 18.97823 1987:1 21.52700 37.55342 31.11326 25.29659 19.42264 1987:2 21.43153 37.69629 31.03588 25.68472 20.95754 1987:3 21.51771 37.21017 30.66743 25.90736 21.49155 1987:4 21.57884 36.54116 31.43583 26.38186 21.35863 1987:5 21.70691 36.30378 32.17279 26.52216 22.18177 1987:6 21.52127 36.45840 32.37448 26.67217 22.42525 1987:7 21.54589 36.55248 32.60375 26.61245 22.79585 1987:8 21.75309 36.85588 33.55206 26.69632 23.23118 1987:9 21.86936 37.40756 33.61259 26.40952 23.62661 1987:10 21.38165 37.79129 34.47183 26.29251 23.47726 1987:11 21.35311 39.21818 35.30508 26.70529 23.99230 1987:12 21.28183 39.03308 35.77496 26.56390 24.04897 1988:1 21.78114 39.31636 36.62931 26.71218 23.54328 1988:2 22.20881 40.40274 36.60102 26.27521 24.72988 1988:3 22.33437 41.03434 36.65013 25.56434 25.60772 1988:4 22.64595 41.45893 37.04761 25.79006 25.68937 1988:5 22.63109 41.13468 36.54773 25.71378 25.53431 1988:6 22.51565 40.26036 36.30662 25.81524 25.47325 1988:7 22.63538 40.58074 36.10884 26.37029 25.31464 1988:8 22.81182 39.78229 36.00161 27.10093 24.89129 1988:9 23.36018 40.52404 35.47745 27.38244 25.49369 1988:10 23.70289 40.25870 34.49467 27.53008 24.84974 1988:11 23.86036 40.25403 33.99882 27.43313 25.17142 1988:12 23.66209 40.16672 33.78103 26.62529 24.43539 1989:1 23.78328 40.19471 34.13757 27.41811 23.44623 1989:2 23.87027 40.22291 34.14074 28.13582 22.90457 1989:3 23.47604 40.07379 33.47966 27.99472 22.00604 1989:4 23.93026 40.50893 34.37195 28.50909 22.66280 1989:5 24.14841 41.30974 34.50881 28.16824 22.66225 1989:6 24.50985 41.46514 35.03230 28.14069 22.41109 1989:7 24.59126 41.67822 35.03844 27.57103 22.45900 1989:8 24.73183 40.78191 35.11354 27.40307 21.89821 1989:9 24.99140 40.69390 35.29861 27.27263 22.44081 1989:10 25.42940 40.57924 34.83818 27.85455 22.30466 1989:11 25.01937 39.82390 34.30296 28.34250 21.99804 1989:12 24.81713 39.52976 34.51146 27.48488 21.54258 1990:1 25.27976 39.69315 34.04389 27.22291 21.60570 1990:2 25.58064 39.27237 33.93427 26.73029 21.28805 1990:3 25.44789 39.46344 33.50542 26.72979 20.80837 1990:4 25.12019 39.04061 33.22831 26.62018 20.28339 1990:5 24.65613 37.94855 32.70602 26.36499 19.93325 1990:6 24.56955 37.82887 33.00514 26.24402 20.64586 1990:7 24.14944 37.69724 32.20127 25.78846 20.54808 1990:8 23.20583 35.75021 31.57712 25.28195 20.35440 1990:9 22.98813 35.55812 32.02262 25.11287 20.22910 1990:10 23.11039 35.77818 31.74531 24.61445 20.26865 1990:11 22.82950 35.53538 30.75961 24.97988 19.89434 1990:12 22.15800 35.10901 30.48343 25.00215 19.47797 1991:1 21.87024 34.71097 30.78545 25.25399 19.83958 1991:2 21.09352 33.70539 29.87104 24.49933 19.03340 1991:3 21.35300 34.36764 29.91808 24.75695 19.48085 1991:4 21.36102 33.98080 30.37526 24.52158 19.94252 1991:5 21.14257 33.81957 29.80340 24.39735 19.11459 1991:6 20.95148 33.62849 30.25879 24.60203 19.07661 1991:7 20.97423 33.71690 29.86835 24.35355 18.40535 1991:8 20.58951 34.20826 29.86113 24.04330 18.70083 1991:9 20.17644 34.22849 29.25824 24.07321 18.91369 1991:10 19.79586 33.60925 29.37044 23.76005 19.37285 1991:11 19.49191 33.64528 29.31331 23.52278 19.48943 1991:12 19.11428 34.42219 28.24070 23.45506 19.47502 1992:1 19.03684 34.86648 28.28042 23.71208 19.41958 1992:2 18.97971 34.12644 27.81485 23.48304 19.77819 1992:3 18.61576 34.39575 26.77780 23.11472 19.28541 1992:4 18.16244 34.12763 26.57819 23.08694 19.81430 1992:5 18.18085 33.90283 25.76443 22.97679 20.89383 1992:6 18.05571 34.10577 25.86893 23.44506 21.45533 1992:7 17.83469 34.02824 25.65738 23.23600 21.12886 1992:8 17.94691 33.74325 26.32286 23.50025 20.70105 1992:9 18.04679 33.72869 26.21551 23.72789 20.28037 1992:10 18.05003 33.18457 26.74641 23.67661 20.23709 1992:11 18.51879 32.73054 26.74576 23.70557 20.45671 1992:12 18.96443 32.31954 26.65674 23.57285 21.17357 1993:1 18.41553 32.24500 26.74021 23.39610 20.70576 1993:2 18.79333 32.62164 27.22199 23.57878 21.53794 1993:3 18.90753 32.56410 27.15437 23.70128 20.84177 1993:4 18.70024 32.62838 27.67217 23.58778 20.50984 1993:5 18.73806 32.40327 27.99182 23.12194 20.34238 1993:6 18.65600 31.88501 28.05561 23.05488 20.18353 1993:7 18.90714 32.10392 28.27509 23.29613 20.70534 1993:8 19.32071 32.58997 28.43883 23.28911 21.24502 1993:9 19.47839 32.88547 27.74593 23.16974 21.64158 1993:10 19.33011 33.34901 27.78654 22.87780 21.73912 1993:11 19.37160 34.30975 28.51125 22.78611 21.83443 1993:12 19.83729 35.02349 28.95215 23.07605 21.39283 1994:1 19.28636 35.55873 28.92447 23.50367 20.67381 1994:2 19.61877 36.59592 29.01279 23.21969 20.07209 1994:3 19.53195 37.30178 29.91210 23.07279 19.73715 1994:4 19.88891 38.48007 29.69111 23.19116 19.55184 1994:5 20.09225 38.71662 29.68562 23.27448 18.70505 1994:6 20.07492 39.31875 29.75727 22.71969 18.61287 1994:7 20.16940 40.24277 30.51885 22.77294 18.80811 1994:8 20.38042 40.85578 31.05673 22.86364 18.94914 1994:9 20.76789 40.73178 32.04353 23.20423 19.21671 1994:10 20.88157 39.86516 32.60560 23.40983 19.64944 1994:11 20.85402 39.30655 32.26323 23.38305 19.87531 1994:12 21.22760 38.26672 32.35048 23.02693 19.65103 1995:1 21.15240 37.61886 32.75418 23.43756 20.37164 1995:2 21.37721 36.96737 32.14254 23.76144 19.90882 1995:3 21.26590 36.04377 32.48872 23.99997 19.87318 1995:4 21.39423 36.02920 32.60344 24.22146 20.42585 1995:5 21.39698 35.59571 32.56586 24.59647 20.06683 1995:6 21.22042 35.04573 32.12369 24.74248 19.65111 1995:7 21.09789 34.84541 31.15554 24.67549 19.40558 1995:8 20.75419 34.55207 30.95909 24.57414 19.03002 1995:9 20.87535 35.63079 29.92484 24.66157 18.82681 1995:10 21.07267 35.29506 30.17002 24.61202 19.13762 1995:11 20.49065 35.37374 29.97131 24.37756 19.48673 1995:12 20.52134 35.83552 29.86090 24.38563 19.88142 1996:1 20.21937 36.21825 29.42332 24.18580 19.66182 1996:2 20.17730 36.44714 29.23170 23.84652 18.73268 1996:3 20.81527 37.76037 29.15301 23.77282 18.07870 1996:4 20.99724 38.15915 28.84551 23.57232 17.68149 1996:5 21.46639 38.17496 29.05757 23.36736 17.34077 1996:6 21.77213 37.96283 30.56686 23.51502 16.96459 1996:7 21.90761 37.71617 30.55420 23.53417 17.07099 1996:8 22.08043 37.45968 30.57928 23.53311 16.83239 1996:9 22.32797 38.17836 31.26572 24.01264 16.60612 1996:10 23.17563 38.90584 31.50156 23.98877 17.19168 1996:11 23.13225 38.83188 31.11029 23.73932 16.56980 1996:12 24.05964 39.27337 31.69227 24.35225 17.39835 1997:1 24.30254 39.02385 32.28915 24.51326 18.23191 1997:2 23.71656 37.87471 32.79598 24.67646 17.50230 1997:3 23.41293 37.73215 33.37625 24.86288 17.83437 1997:4 22.89000 38.16357 32.36527 24.55255 17.86719 1997:5 22.88259 38.96484 31.97005 24.87877 18.22380 1997:6 22.86303 39.43058 32.57080 24.86879 18.66369 1997:7 22.87356 39.95878 33.56616 25.17836 18.62520 1997:8 22.82364 39.81600 33.22194 25.02281 19.05173 1997:9 22.83455 40.78508 33.78910 25.61510 18.64132 1997:10 23.32395 40.68360 34.31440 25.94462 19.29736 1997:11 23.23670 41.02961 35.00041 25.62947 19.09022 1997:12 23.49980 41.22817 34.09454 25.91754 19.86565 1998:1 23.84590 41.28436 34.05674 26.01948 20.85886 1998:2 24.86184 41.52967 34.75911 26.36051 20.66391 1998:3 25.20062 40.90951 35.42468 26.82214 20.82101 1998:4 24.92869 41.01968 34.54692 26.63428 19.78936 1998:5 24.92946 41.65655 34.22791 27.11754 20.13422 1998:6 24.76255 40.99057 33.76967 26.90889 20.10821 1998:7 24.83843 41.81283 33.72328 27.02449 19.89389 1998:8 25.26803 41.30684 33.17676 26.84671 20.59187 1998:9 25.12923 41.47027 33.12753 27.03097 21.53778 1998:10 25.94050 40.94494 32.56006 27.05895 22.06175