Agenda

updated: November 9, 2011

October 18 | October 19

Tuesday, October 18

7:00 a.m.	Breakfast
8:15 a.m.	Conference Commencement & Welcome
	Eric S. Rosengren President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
	The morning sessions will be moderated by Mary Burke, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
8:30 a.m.	The Statistical Behavior of GDP after Financial Crises and Severe Recessions Do severe recessions associated with financial crises leave permanent scars on the economy? The opening session will set the stage for the conference by discussing the statistical evidence on long-term effects of these economic setbacks, looking across nations as well as historically in the United States. Do these setbacks cause large and permanent reductions in aggregate GDP relative to previous trends? If economies eventually recover back to trend, how long do these recoveries typically take?
	Presenter:	David H. Papell Joel W. Sailors Endowed Professor of Economics University of Houston Ruxandra Prodan Clinical Assistant Professor of Economics University of Houston Paper See also: authors' contributions on Econbrowser: “The Great Slump is Not Yet Half Over”
	Discussants:	Jeremy Piger Associate Professor of Finance University of Oregon James Stock Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy Harvard University
10:00 a.m.	Break
10:30 a.m.	The Economic Implications of Shifts in Attitudes after the Great Recession Using social surveys, some economists have found that cohorts who live through difficult economic times adopt specific attitudes towards risk and other economic variables over their lifetimes. What does this research imply for long-term economic trends? Will the severe recession make people save more over their entire lives, or alternatively, will the portfolio preferences of savers change after the crisis – will they save more in less risky assets? Are the potential shifts in economic attitudes large enough to have long-term impacts on the macroeconomy?
	Presenters:	Anat Bracha Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Julian Jamison Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Paper
	Discussant:	Stefan Nagel Associate Professor of Finance Stanford University Antonio Spilimbergo Researcher International Monetary Fund
12:00 p.m.	Luncheon
1:15 p.m.	Keynote Address:	The Honorable Ben S. Bernanke Chairman Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Remarks
	The afternoon sessions will be moderated by Jeff Fuhrer, Executive Vice President and Senior Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
2:00 p.m.	The Effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. Labor Market How will the Great Recession alter the long-term quantity and distribution of human capital across individuals, demographic groups, and birth cohorts in the United States? There is some evidence that severe recessions place younger cohorts at an economic disadvantage—regarding employment and earnings prospects—for the rest of their lives. Should these concerns be relevant for young people today and do they have implications for the NAIRU? Additionally, what do the wage experiences of displaced workers imply for the lifetime earnings of today's unemployed? What are the effects on long-term labor market flows and earnings trends of the negative shock to job tenure (for all age groups) caused by the Great Recession? What do we know about the interaction of labor market institutions and hysteresis, and have U.S. labor market institutions become more or less flexible (long-term) as a result of the Great Recession?
	Presenters:	William T. Dickens Distinguished Professor of Economics and Social Policy Northeastern University Robert K. Triest Vice President and Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Paper
	Discussants:	Gary Burtless John C. and Nancy D. Whitehead Chair in Economic Studies The Brookings Institution Bart Hobijn Senior Research Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
3:30 p.m.	Break
4:00 p.m	A New World for the Housing Market and the GSEs Housing obviously played a large part in the financial crisis, but no one is sure how the housing market will or should change in the future. Recently, the Obama Administration offered reform alternatives for the largest players in the housing market---the Government Sponsored Entities (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This session will discuss GSE reform within the wider context of the appropriate government role in housing finance. Are Fannie and Freddie needed to ensure a well-functioning housing market or did they help create the moral hazard problems that contributed to the recent crisis? Would winding them down to create a mostly private system of housing finance affect the types of mortgages that Americans use, reduce homeownership among particular groups, or make the housing-finance system more vulnerable to adverse economic shocks? What can we infer from other nations' institutions, policy approaches, and experiences?
	Presenter:	Phillip L. Swagel Professor in International Economic Policy University of Maryland Paper
	Discussants:	Deborah J. Lucas Professor of Finance Massachusetts Institute of Technology Susan M. Wachter Richard B. Worley Professor of Financial Management; Professor of Real Estate and Finance The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
5:30 p.m.	Reception & Dinner

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Wednesday, October 19

7:00 a.m.	Breakfast
8:30 a.m.	Conference Address:	Eric S. Rosengren President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Remarks
	The sessions will be moderated by Martin Feldstein, George F. Baker Professor of Economics, Harvard University
9:00 a.m.	Fiscal Policy as a Stabilization Tool After years on the sidelines, countercyclical fiscal policy made a comeback during the Great Recession. Federal stimulus dollars provided direct help for the unemployed and other affected groups, aid for state and local governments struggling under balanced-budget requirements, tax cuts to individuals and businesses, and support for public investments. Did the Great Recession teach us anything about the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool? Did some types of stimulus have more "bang for the buck" than others, or add more effectively to the public capital stock? And what is the future for countercyclical fiscal policy, in light of the ongoing concern about the federal budget deficit?
	Presenter:	Antonio Fatás Portuguese Council Chaired Professor of European Studies, Professor of Economics INSEAD Ilian Mihov Dean of Research, Professor of Economics, and The Novartis Chair of Management and Environment INSEAD Paper
	Discussants:	Silvia Ardagna Senior European Economist Bank of America Merrill Lynch Gauti B. Eggertsson Research Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York
10:30 a.m.	Break
11:00 a.m.	Panel Discussion: Will the Federal Reserve Be Able to Serve as Lender of Last Resort in the Next Financial Crisis? Like many central banks, the Federal Reserve functions as a lender of last resort. In particular, the Fed's emergency lending programs played a key role in maintaining liquidity during the worst of the recent financial crisis. Yet the Fed's lending powers have been curtailed by the Dodd-Frank Act. Will the removal of 13(3) lending authority make financial markets less stable, or will the new restrictions be internalized by forward-looking traders? And how are the Fed's new responsibilities for systemic regulation affected by the new emergency-lending limitations?
	Panelists:	James Segel Partner Smith, Segel, Ruddock & Hayes Simon Johnson Ronald A. Kurtz (1954) Professor of Entrepreneurship Massachusetts Institute of Technology Donald Kohn Senior Fellow The Brookings Institution Comments Q&A Discussion Part 1 Q&A Discussion Part 2
12:30 p.m.	Luncheon
2:00 p.m	Conference Adjournment