The Honorable Ben S. Bernanke Chairman Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Remarks

Break

Today's sessions are moderated by J. Christina Wang, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

This session will provide an overview of the experience of the first decade of the twenty-first century, with particular attention paid to the issues being examined in more detail in subsequent sessions.

Richard H. Clarida C. Lowell Harriss Professor of Economics Columbia University Paper Presentation

N. Gregory Mankiw Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics Harvard University

John B. Taylor Mary and Robert Raymond Professor Economics Stanford University Presentation

Break

In 1999 at the joint Federal Reserve System conference on monetary policy in a low inflation environment, most participants were reasonably sanguine about the likelihood of hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB) and about the central bank's ability to use alternative tools to stabilize the economy in that event. Were the estimates from that era accurate? Or should recent experience lead us to re-estimate the probability of hitting the ZLB? How robust are estimates of the probability of hitting the ZLB to model specification? What are our current best estimates of the costs of hitting the ZLB constraint? What has recent experience taught us about the effectiveness of alternative interest-rate policies (nonlinear and expectations-based) in mitigating the costs?

John C. Williams Executive Vice President and Director of Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Hess Chung Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

David L. Reifschneider Senior Associate Director, Division of Research and Statistics Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Paper Presentation

Marvin Goodfriend Professor of Economics and Chairman, The Gaillot Center for Public Policy Carnegie Melon Tepper School of Business Presentation

Andrea Tambalotti Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of New York Presentation

Lunch

The last several years have marked the first time that most advanced economies-with the notable exception of Japan-have used alternative monetary policies to stabilize the economy when the inflation rate was pinned at the zero lower bound. What have we learned from this relatively recent experience? How effective were such tools in the United States and in other similarly constrained economies?

James D. Hamilton Professor of Economics University of California at San Diego Paper Presentation

James McAndrews Executive Vice President and Director of Financial Research Federal Reserve Bank of New York Presentation

Laurence H. Meyer Senior Managing Director and Co-Founder Macroeconomic Advisors Discussion  Presentation

Break

Jeffrey C. Fuhrer Executive Vice President and Director of Research Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Giovanni P. Olivei Vice President and Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Geoffrey M. B. Tootell Senior Vice President and Deputy Director of Research Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Paper Presentation

William T. Dickens Distinguished Professor of Economics and Social Policy Northeastern University Presentation

Peter Hooper Chief Economist Deutsche Bank Securities Discussion

Reception , Dinner

Eric S. Rosengren President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Remarks

Today's sessions are moderated by Giovanni Olivei, Vice President and Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Since the mid-to-late 1990s, the general consensus on inflation targeting has held that a 2 percent inflation rate is the best long-run goal. Yet several prominent economists have recently put forward the bold suggestion that central banks might now consider raising their inflation goal in light of concerns about the zero lower bound, the effectiveness of alternative monetary policy instruments, and the possibility of deflation. This session will examine this proposition from multiple perspectives, including optimal taxation and the optimality of the Friedman rule.

Bennett T. McCallum H. J. Heinz Professor of Economics Carnegie Mellon University /-/media/Documents/conference/55/papers/McCallum.pdf Presentation

Joseph E. Gagnon Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics /-/media/Documents/conference/55/papers/Gagnon.pdf

Julio J. Rotemberg William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Discussion Presentation

Break

Recent experiences in the United States and other advanced nations have stretched the usual distinction between monetary and fiscal policy. In part, the traditional distinction centers on the premise that the central bank should not take on credit risk, whereas the country's treasury may do so. But it also involves consideration of the extent to which asset purchase programs focusing on particular sectors of the economy may constitute redistributive fiscal policy. This session will discuss the increasingly ambiguous boundaries between fiscal and monetary policy given the low inflation environment, and how permeable these boundaries have been and should be.

Discussants:

Benjamin M. Friedman William Joseph Maier Professor of Political Economy Harvard University

Matthew C. Weinzierl Assistant Professor of Business Administration Harvard Business School Presentation

Lunch

The recent financial and economic crisis was, more than any other episode in the past several decades, an international crisis. Central banks around the world pursued similar policies in many cases, but the experiences were not identical across countries. This panel will draw out the common lessons learned from the experience, while highlighting important differences in the policy approaches of central banks.

Panelists:

Alan S. Blinder Gordon R. Rentschler Memorial Professor of Economics Princeton University Presentation 

Charles L. Evans President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Remarks Presentation

Richard Portes Professor of Economics, London Business School and President, Centre for Economic Policy Research Presentation

Kazuo Ueda Faculty of Economics University of Tokyo /-/media/Documents/conference/55/papers/Ueda.pdf Presentation

Conference Adjournment