Jeffrey C. Fuhrer
Jeffrey C. Fuhrer
Executive Vice President & Senior Policy Advisor

email  Jeff.Fuhrer@bos.frb.org

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Publications

Refereed journal articles

"The Role of Expectations in Inflation Dynamics." International Journal of Central Banking. 8(Supplement 1): 137-166. (January 2012). Previously issued as FRB Boston Working Paper Series, paper no. 11-11 (2011).

"Inflation Dynamics When Inflation is Near Zero," with Giovanni Olivei and Geoffrey Tootell. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 44(1): 83-122 (February 2012). Previously issued as FRB Boston Working Paper Series, paper no. 11-7 (2011).

"Eyes on the Prize: How Did the Fed Respond to Stock Prices?" with Geoffrey Tootell. Journal of Monetary Economics. 55(4): 796-805 (May 2008). Previously issued as FRB Boston Public Policy Discussion Paper Series, paper no. 04-2 (2004).

"Intrinsic and Inherited Inflation Persistence." International Journal of Central Banking. 2(3): 49-86 (2006). Previously issued as FRB Boston Working Paper Series, paper no. 05-8 (2005).

"Risky Habits: Risk Sharing, Habit Formation and International Consumption Correlations," with Michael Klein. Review of International Economics. 14(4): 712-740 (2006). Previously issued as NBER Working Paper Series no. 6735 (1998).

"Estimating the Euler Equation for Output," with Glenn Rudebusch. Journal of Monetary Economics. 51 (2004): 1133-1153. Previously issued as FRB Boston Working Paper Series, paper no. 02-3 (2002).

"Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models," with A. Estrella. Review of Economics and Statistics. 85(1): 94-104 (February 2003).

"Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational Expectations Models," with Arturo Estrella. American Economic Review. 92(4) (September 2002). Previously issued as FRB Boston Working Paper Series, paper no. 98-5 (1998).

"Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment: An Overview," with Mark Sniderman. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 32(4, part 2) (2000).

"Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary Policy."American Economic Review. (June 2000).

"Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded at Zero," with B. Madigan.Review of Economics and Statistics. 79(4): 573-585 (1997). Previously issued as FRB Boston Working Paper Series, paper no. 94-1 (1994).

"The (Un) Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications."Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 29(3): 338-350 (August 1997).

"Inflation/Output Variance Trade-offs and Optimal Monetary Policy." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 29(2): 214-234 (May 1997).

"Monetary Policy Shifts and Long-Term Interest Rates." Quarterly Journal of Economics. 111(4): 1183-1209 (November 1996).

"Forward-Looking Behavior and the Stability of a Conventional Monetary Policy Rule," with G. Moore. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. 27(4): 1060-1070 (November 1995, Part I).

"Monetary Policy Trade-Offs and the Correlation Between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output." American Economic Review. 85: 219-239 (March 1995).

"Inflation Persistence," with G. Moore. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 110(1): 127-159 (February 1995).

"A Comparison of GMM and Maximum-Likelihood Estimates of Quadratic Cost Inventory Models," with G. Moore, S. Schuh. Journal of Monetary Economics. 35: 127-159 (February 1995).

"Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?" with C. Carroll, D. Wilcox. American Economic Review. 84(5): 1397-1408 (December 1994).

"Learning About Monetary Regime Shifts in an Overlapping Wage Contract Economy," with M. Hooker. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 17: 531-553 (1993).

"Monetary Policy Rules and the Indicator Properties of Asset Prices" with G. Moore. Journal of Monetary Economics. 29: 303-336 (1992).

"Estimating Time-Varying Parameters in a Nonlinear Multivariate Model: Inferring Changes in Expectation Behavior Over Time." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 10: 169-178 (1992).

"A Multivariate Posterior Odds Approach to Assessing Competing Exchange Rate Models," with K. Weiller. Review of Economics and Statistics. 73: 113-124 (February 1991).

"Estimation of Time-Varying Weights on Alternative Expectation Models: An Application of Nonlinear Time-Varying Parameters Estimation." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 12: 55-61 (1988).

"On the Information Content of Consumer Survey Expectations." Review of Economics and Statistics. 70: 140-144 (March 1988).

"Minimum Variance Pooling of Forecasts at Different Levels of Aggregation," with J. Haltmaier. Journal of Forecasting. 7: 63-73 (May 1988).

"Information Gathering and Expectation Formation under Model Uncertainty."Southern Economic Journal. (January 1987). Other journal articles

"Issues In Economics: What Is the Cost of Deflation?" with Geoffrey M. B. Tootell. Regional Review 14(1) (Quarter 4, 2003/Quarter 1, 2004).

"Issues In Economics: In a Booming Economy, Unemployment Has Remained Surprisingly Strong," with Hoyt Bleakley and Ann Ferris. Regional Review 9(2) (Quarter 4, 1999). "New Data on Worker Flows During Business Cycles," with Hoyt Bleakley and Ann E. Ferris. New England Economic Review (July/August 1999).

"Beyond Shocks: What Causes Business Cycles? An Overview," with Scott Schuh. New England Economic Review(November/December 1998).

"Shifts in the Beveridge Curve, Job Matching, and Labor Market Dynamics," with Hoyt Bleakley. New England Economic Review (September/October 1997).

"Central Bank Independence and Inflation Targeting: Monetary Policy Guideposts for the Next Century?" New England Economic Review(January/February 1997).

"Technology and Growth: An Overview," with Jane Sneddon Little. New England Economic Review (November/December 1996).

"Monetary Policy and the Behavior of Long-Term Real Interest Rates." New England Economic Review (September/October 1995).

"The Phillips Curve Is Alive and Well." New England Economic Review(March/April 1995).

"The Persistence of Inflation and the Cost of Disinflation." New England Economic Review (January/February 1995).

Books and book chapters

"Inflation Persistence" in Handbook of Monetary Economics, vol. 3A. Friedman, B. and Woodford, M. eds. 2011, North-Holland, San Diego CA.

Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective, co-editor with Yolanda Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, and Giovanni P. Olivie, MIT Press 2009.

"The Phillips Curve in Historical Context" with Yolanda Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little and Giovanni P. Olivei in Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective, MIT Press 2009.

"Estimating Forward-Looking Euler Equations with GMM and Maximum Likelihood Estimators: An Optimal Instruments Approach," with Giovanni Oliviei, in Models and Monetary Policy: Research in the Tradition of Dale Henderson, Richard Porter, and Peter Tinsley. Faust, J., Orphanides, A. and D. Reifschneider, eds. 2004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Previously issued as FRB Boston Working Paper Series, paper no. 04-2 (2004).

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, edited with Mark Sniderman, special issue editors. Proceedings from October 1999 conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve, "Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment;" 32, no. 4, part 2 (November 2000).

"Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment: An Overview," with Mark Sniderman. Proceedings from October 1999 conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve. In Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 32, no. 4, part 2 (November 2000).

"Monetary Policy Issues in a Low-Inflation Environment: Comment," in Why Price Stability? the First European Central Bank Central Banking Conference. November 2000: 169-174.

"What Happened to the Phillips Curve in the 1990s in Canada? A Comment," in the Proceedings from Bank of Canada Conference, Price Stability and the Long-Run Target for Monetary Policy. June 2000, pp. 88-95.

Beyond Shocks: What Causes Business Cycles? edited with Scott Schuh. Proceedings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series no. 42, 1998.

"Beyond Shocks: What Causes Business Cycles? An Overview," with Scott Schuh, in Beyond Shocks: What Causes Business Cycles? Proceedings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series no. 42, 1998, pp. 1-31.

"Towards a Compact, Empirically Verified Rational Expectations Model for Monetary Policy Analysis," in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy no. 47, December 1997, pp. 197-230.

Technology and Growth, edited with Jane Sneddon Little. Proceedings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series no. 40, 1996.

"Technology and Growth: An Overview," with Jane Sneddon Little, in Technology and Growth, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series no. 40, 1996, pp. 1-32.

Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints for Monetary Policymakers, editor. Proceedings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series no. 38, 1994.

"Optimal Monetary Policy and the Sacrifice Ratio," in Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers. Proceedings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series no. 38, 1994, pp. 43-69.

Working papers and other unpublished papers

"Expectations as a Source of Macroeconomic Persistence: An Exploration of Firms' and Households' Expectation Formation." FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 15-5 (2015).

"Real Expectations: Replacing Rational Expectations with Survey Expectations in Dynamic Macro Models". FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 12-19, (2012).

"Inflation Dynamics When Inflation is Near Zero," with Giovanni P. Olivei and Geoffrey M. B. Tootell. FRB Boston Working Papesr Series, paper no. 11-17, (2011).

"The Role of Expectations in U.S. Inflation Dynamics." FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 11-11 (2011).

"Inflation Expectations and the Evolution of U.S. Inflation." FRB Boston Public Policy Brief Series, no. 11-4, (2011).

"The Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Treasury Purchase Program," with Giovanni P. Olivei. FRB Boston Public Policy Brief Series, no. 11-2 (2011).

"The Role of Expectations and Output in the Inflation Process: An Empirical Assessment," with Giovanni P. Olivei. FRB Boston Public Policy Brief Series, no. 10-2 (2010).

"Inflation Persistence." FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 09-14 (2009).

"A Proposal to Help Distressed Homeowners: A Government Payment-Sharing Plan," with Chris Foote, Eileen Mauskopf and Paul Willen. FRB Boston Public Policy Brief Series, no. 09-1 (2009).

"Empirical Estimates of Changing Inflation Dynamics," with Giovanni Olivei and Geoffrey M. B. Tootell. FRB Boston Working Paper Series, paper no. 09-4 (2009).

"Intrinsic and Inherited Inflation Persistence." FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 05-8 (2005).

"Eyes on the Prize: How Did the Fed Respond to the Stock Market?" with Geoff Tootell. FRB Boston Public Policy Discussion Paper Series, paper no. 04-2 (2004).

"Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model with Habit Formation and Explicit Tax Distortions." FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 01-5 (2001).

"Are ‘Deep’ Parameters Stable? The Lucas Critique as an Empirical Hypothesis," with Arturo Estrella. FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 99-4 (1999).

"An Optimization Model for Monetary Policy Analysis: Can Habit Formation Help?" FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 98-1 (1998).

"Towards a Compact, Empirically Verified Rational Expectations Model for Monetary Policy Analysis" FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 96-8 (1996).

"Computationally Efficient Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," with C. Hoyt Bleakley. FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 96-2 (1996).

"Modeling Long-Term Nominal Interest Rates." FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 95-7 (1995).

"The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications." FRB Boston Working Papers Series, paper no. 95-6 (1995).

Other material

Discussion of 'Monetary Policy for Inattentive Economies' by Laurence Ball, N. Gregory Mankiw, and Ricardo Reis. Conference on Behavioral Macroeconomics. Swiss National Bank/Journal of Monetary Economics. October 11-12, 2002.

"An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Comment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual. November 1997.

Matlab code for solution, simulation, and estimation of general dynamic linear rational expectations models. (Fuhrer and Moore, February 1995).