Jeffrey C. Fuhrer
Jeffrey C. Fuhrer
Executive Vice President & Senior Policy Advisor

email  Jeff.Fuhrer@bos.frb.org

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Publications

Refereed journal articles

“Should the Fed Regularly Evaluate Its Monetary Policy Framework,” with Giovanni Olivei, Eric Rosengren, and Geoffrey M.B. Tootell. Forthcoming. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Fall 2018. Previously issued as Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 18-8.

“The Role of Expectations in Inflation Dynamics.” 2012. International Journal of Central Banking 8(Supplement 1): 137–166. Previously issued as Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 11-11.

“Inflation Dynamics When Inflation Is Near Zero,” with Giovanni Olivei and Geoffrey Tootell. 2012. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 44(1): 83–122. Previously issued as Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 11-17.

“Eyes on the Prize: How Did the Fed Respond to Stock Prices?” with Geoffrey Tootell. 2008. Journal of Monetary Economics 55(4): 796–805. Previously issued as Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Public Policy Discussion Papers No. 04-2.

“Intrinsic and Inherited Inflation Persistence.” 2006. International Journal of Central Banking 2(3): 49–86. Previously issued as Federal Reserve Bank Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 05-8.

“Risky Habits: Risk Sharing, Habit Formation and International Consumption Correlations,” with Michael Klein. 2006. Review of International Economics 14(4): 712–740. Previously issued as NBER Working Paper No. 6735.

“Estimating the Euler Equation for Output,” with Glenn Rudebusch. 2004. Journal of Monetary Economics 51(2004): 1133–1153. Previously issued as Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 02-3.

“Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models,” with A. Estrella. 2003. Review of Economics and Statistics 85(1): 94–104.

“Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational Expectations Models,” with Arturo Estrella. 2002. American Economic Review 92(4): 1013–1028. Previously issued as Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 98-5.

“Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment: An Overview,” with Mark Sniderman. 2000. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 32(4, Part 2).

“Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models.” 2000. American Economic Review 90(30): 367–390.

“Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded at Zero,” with B. Madigan. 1997. Review of Economics and Statistics 79(4): 573–585. Previously issued as Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Working Papers No. 94-1.

“The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications.” 1997. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 29(3): 338–350.

“Inflation/Output Variance Trade-offs and Optimal Monetary Policy.” 1997. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 29(2): 214–234.

“Monetary Policy Shifts and Long-Term Interest Rates.” 1996. Quarterly Journal of Economics 111(4): 1183–1209.

“Forward-Looking Behavior and the Stability of a Conventional Monetary Policy Rule,” with G. Moore. 1995. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 27(4): 1060-1070.

“Monetary Policy Trade-Offs and the Correlation between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output.” 1995. American Economic Review 85(1): 219–239.

“Inflation Persistence,” with G. Moore. 1995. Quarterly Journal of Economics 110(1): 127–159.

“Estimating the Linear-Quadratic Inventory Model Maximum Likelihood versus Generalized Method of Moments,” with G. Moore and S. Schuh. 1995. Journal of Monetary Economics 35(1): 115–157.

“Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?” with C. Carroll and D. Wilcox. 1994. American Economic Review 84(5): 1397–1408.

“Learning about Monetary Regime Shifts in an Overlapping Wage Contract Model,” with M. Hooker. 1993. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 17(4): 531–553.

“Monetary Policy Rules and the Indicator Properties of Asset Prices,” with G. Moore. 1992. Journal of Monetary Economics 29(2): 303–336.

“Inferring Changes in Expectation Behavior over Time: An Application of Nonlinear Time-Varying-Parameters Estimation.” 1992.  Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10(2): 169–177.

“A Multivariate Posterior Odds Approach to Assessing Competing Exchange Rate Models,” with K. Weiller. 1991. Review of Economics and Statistics 73(1): 113–124.

“Estimation of Time-Varying Weights on Alternative Expectation Models: An Application of Nonlinear Time-Varying Parameters Estimation.” 1988. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12(1): 55–61.

“On the Information Content of Consumer Survey Expectations.” 1988. Review of Economics and Statistics 70(1): 140–144.

“Minimum Variance Pooling of Forecasts at Different Levels of Aggregation,” with J. Haltmaier. 1988. Journal of Forecasting 7(1): 63–73.

“Information Gathering and Expectation Formation under Model Uncertainty." 1987. Southern Economic Journal 53(3): 685–701.

Other journal articles

“Issues in Economics: What Is the Cost of Deflation?” with Geoffrey M. B. Tootell. 2004. Regional Review 14(1) Q4-Q1 2003/4.

“Issues in Economics: In a Booming Economy, Unemployment Has Remained Surprisingly Strong,” with Hoyt Bleakley and Ann Ferris. 1999. Regional Review 9(2) Q4.

“New Data on Worker Flows during Business Cycles,” with Hoyt Bleakley and Ann E. Ferris. 1999. New England Economic Review July/August 1999.

“Beyond Shocks: What Causes Business Cycles? An Overview,” with Scott Schuh. 1998. New England Economic Review November/December 1998.

“Shifts in the Beveridge Curve, Job Matching, and Labor Market Dynamics,” with Hoyt Bleakley. 1997. New England Economic Review September/October 1997.

“Central Bank Independence and Inflation Targeting: Monetary Policy Guideposts for the Next Century?” 1997. New England Economic Review January/February 1997.

“Technology and Growth: An Overview," with Jane Sneddon Little. 1996. New England Economic Review November/December 1996.

“Monetary Policy and the Behavior of Long-Term Real Interest Rates.” 1995. New England Economic Review September/October 1995.

“The Phillips Curve Is Alive and Well.” 1995. New England Economic Review March/April 1995.

“The Persistence of Inflation and the Cost of Disinflation." 1995. New England Economic Review January/February 1995.

Books and book chapters

“Inflation Persistence.” 2011. In Handbook of Monetary Economics Volume 3A, edited by B. Friedman and M. Woodford. San Diego, CA: North-Holland.

Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective, edited with Yolanda Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, and Giovanni P. Olivie. 2009. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

“The Phillips Curve in Historical Context,” with Yolanda Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, and Giovanni P. Olivei. 2009. In Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

“Estimating Forward-Looking Euler Equations with GMM and Maximum Likelihood Estimators: An Optimal Instruments Approach,” with Giovanni Oliviei. 2004. In Models and Monetary Policy: Research in the Tradition of Dale Henderson, Richard Porter, and Peter Tinsley, edited by J. Faust, A. Orphanides, and D. Reifschneider. Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Previously issued as Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Paper No. 04-2.

Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment (proceedings from October 1999 conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve), special issue editor with Mark Sniderman. 2000. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 32(4) Part 2.

“Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment: Conference Summary,” with Mark Sniderman. 2000. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 32(4) Part 2: 845–869.

“Monetary Policy Issues in a Low-Inflation Environment: Comment.” 2000. Why Price Stability? Proceedings from the First European Central Bank Central Banking Conference. November 2000: 169–174.

“What Happened to the Phillips Curve in the 1990s in Canada? A Comment.” 2000. Price Stability and the Long-Run Target for Monetary Policy. Proceedings from Bank of Canada Conference. June 2000: 88–95.
Beyond Shocks: What Causes Business Cycles? edited with Scott Schuh. 1998. Proceedings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference No. 42.

“Beyond Shocks: What Causes Business Cycles? An Overview,” with Scott Schuh. 1998. Beyond Shocks: What Causes Business Cycles? Proceedings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference No. 42: 1–31.

“Towards a Compact, Empirically Verified Rational Expectations Model for Monetary Policy Analysis.” 1997. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy No. 47: 197–230.

Technology and Growth, edited with Jane Sneddon Little. 1996. Proceedings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference No. 40.

“Technology and Growth: An Overview,” with Jane Sneddon Little. 1996. Technology and Growth. Proceedings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference No. 40:  1–32.

Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers, editor. 1994. Proceedings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference No. 38.

“Optimal Monetary Policy and the Sacrifice Ratio. 1994. Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers. Proceedings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference No. 38: 43–69.

Working papers and other unpublished papers

Intrinsic Expectations Persistence: Evidence from Professional and Household Survey Expectations.” 2018. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 18-9.

Should the Fed Regularly Evaluate Its Monetary Policy Framework?” with Giovanni Olivei, Eric Rosengren, and Geoffrey M.B. Tootell. 2018. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 18-8.

Expectations as a Source of Macroeconomic Persistence: An Exploration of Firms' and Households' Expectation Formation.” 2015. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 15-5.

Expectations as a Source of Macroeconomic Persistence: Evidence from Survey Expectations in Dynamic Macro Models.” 2012. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 12-19.

Inflation Dynamics When Inflation Is Near Zero," with Giovanni P. Olivei and Geoffrey M. B. Tootell. 2011. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 11-17.

The Role of Expectations in U.S. Inflation Dynamics.” 2011. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 11-11.

Inflation Expectations and the Evolution of U.S. Inflation.” 2011. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Public Policy Briefs No. 11-4.

The Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Large-Scale Treasury Purchase Program,” with Giovanni P. Olivei. 2011. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Public Policy Briefs No. 11-2.

The Role of Expectations and Output in the Inflation Process: An Empirical Assessment,” with Giovanni P. Olivei. 2010. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Public Policy Briefs No. 10-2.

Inflation Persistence.” 2009. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 09-14.

A Proposal to Help Distressed Homeowners: A Government Payment-Sharing Plan,” with Chris Foote, Eileen Mauskopf, and Paul Willen. 2009. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Public Policy Briefs No. 09-1.

Empirical Estimates of Changing Inflation Dynamics,” with Giovanni Olivei and Geoffrey M. B. Tootell. 2009. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 09-4.

Intrinsic and Inherited Inflation Persistence.” 2005. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 05-8.

Eyes on the Prize: How Did the Fed Respond to the Stock Market?” with Geoff Tootell. 2004. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Public Policy Discussion Papers No. 04-2.

Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model with Habit Formation and Explicit Tax Distortions." 2001. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 01-6.

Are ‘Deep’ Parameters Stable? The Lucas Critique as an Empirical Hypothesis,” with Arturo Estrella. 1999. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 99-4.

An Optimization Model for Monetary Policy Analysis: Can Habit Formation Help?” 1998. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 98-1.

Towards a Compact, Empirically Verified Rational Expectations Model for Monetary Policy Analysis.” 1996. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 96-8.

Computationally Efficient Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," with C. Hoyt Bleakley. 1996. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 96-2.

Modeling Long-Term Nominal Interest Rates.” 1995. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 95-7.

The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications.” 1995. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Research Department Working Papers No. 95-6.

Other material

Discussion of “Monetary Policy for Inattentive Economies” by Laurence Ball, N. Gregory Mankiw, and Ricardo Reis. Conference on Behavioral Macroeconomics. Swiss National Bank/Journal of Monetary Economics. October 11–12, 2002.

“An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Comment.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, November1997.

Matlab code for solution, simulation, and estimation of general dynamic linear rational expectations models. (Fuhrer and Moore, February 1995).